On Friday the Defense Department released two reports to Congress about Afghanistan (as required by law). One is the first biennial report on security in the country, the other a plan for sustaining the Afghan National Security Forces (both PDFs). The news is grim. But just as with the Iraq quarterly reports, the DoD tries to put a positive spin on things. This time the best evidence of that is on display in purple font (literally).
The security report indicates that the situation is deteriorating so badly that the Pentagon expects the Taliban to continue to grow in strength (it has "coalesced into a resilient insurgency"); expand its strongholds in the south and east while moving into the north and west; and "maintain or even increase the scope and pace of its terrorist attacks and bombings in 2008" (IED attacks were up 35% in 2007). June has seen 40 coalition soldiers killed in Afghanistan, a new high since the invasion. Even though we have only 32,000 troops deployed there, US deaths in Afghanistan in May outnumbered those in Iraq. It's fair to say that things are falling apart.
U.S. Army Maj. Gen. Jeffrey Schloesser, commander of U.S. forces in eastern Afghanistan, told reporters this week that violence there had increased 40 percent over the level of last spring.
Schloesser said the attacks by Taliban insurgents are increasingly sophisticated: rather than a simple roadside bomb being detonated by a convoy, his troops are now seeing roadside bomb detonations followed immediately by intense enemy small-arms fire from both sides of the road, and a second roadside bomb being detonated as U.S. reinforcements arrive...
A U.S. Army mental health assessment this spring said that American troops in Afghanistan face a more dangerous and violent environment than in Iraq, and consequently are experiencing higher levels of stress.
One of the main culprits for the deterioration of security is Bush's adventure in Iraq, which beginning in 2002 just a few weeks after the collapse of the Taliban government diverted men and resources from Afghanistan.
The turnaround poses a dilemma for the Bush administration, which had counted Afghanistan as the pinnacle of its success in the war on terror. U.S. commanders say they need more forces, but they can only be provided through withdrawing troops from Iraq. As a result, the administration may have to choose between accepting a smaller U.S. presence in Iraq or facing the prospect of turmoil in Afghanistan.
Senior Pentagon officials and military commanders have ordered a top-to-bottom review of U.S. strategy in Afghanistan. The review was prompted by high-level concern that the U.S. "was losing ground and slipping backwards," said a senior military official familiar with the review.
Friday's security report describes wider problems than just the resurgent Taliban. Afghanistan is close to becoming a failed state again. The Kabul government cannot exert control over much of the country...in the east and south because of the Taliban and the apparent meddling of Pakistan's Inter Services Intelligence agency, and everywhere else because of warlords and criminals.
"Up to the first quarter of 2008, the most significant threat to stability in the north and west of the country has come from warlords, criminals and drug traffickers."
That has led to almost unchecked corruption.
"Examples abound of corrupt public officials who are immune from prosecution, judges and prosecutors whose discretion is subject to influence, and police who not only refuse to take action to stem corruption, but also engage in corrupt activities themselves."
David Wood of the Baltimore Sun adds:
The Pentagon report's assessment of corruption echoed remarks this week by Afghanistan's attorney general, who told a gathering in Washington that "we have many people who are above the law [and] we cannot touch them."
Abdul Jabbar Sabit, at a conference sponsored by the U.S. Institute of Peace, said powerful warlords and drug lords, as well as senior government ministers "are too powerful for the police to arrest them."
And the opium trade has reached record levels in 2007 despite aggressive programs to stamp it out. The report concedes that...
"overall counternarcotics efforts in Afghanistan have not been successful"
The Afghan media is less and less free.
"Government repression and armed groups prevent the media from operating freely."
Human rights abuses are routine, even among the National Security Forces.
"Afghanistan's human rights record remains poor and serious abuses continue. The [Afghan government] and its partners are fighting an insurgency that respects no boundaries in perpetrating violence upon civilian populations. Afghan National Security Forces and tribal and regional leaders' Human rRights abuses include extrajudicial killings, arbitrary arrest and detention, poor prison conditions, official impunity, prolonged pretrial detention, torture, and abuse of authority. Restrictions on freedoms of movement and association continue as does violence and societal discrimination against women, minorities, and religious converts; trafficking in persons; abuse of worker rights; and child labor."
That passage (on page 40), like several others in the version of the Afghan security report posted at the DoD website on Friday, includes what appear to be several additions and deletions (purple font in the original) waiting to be finalized. Thus the Pentagon seems to have slipped up in not posting the final draft of the report, but instead perhaps the penultimate draft.
If that's the case, we can see several instances where the DoD is trying to craft a less embarrassing report. In the foregoing passage, somebody wanted to delete an explicit reference to the Afghan National Security Forces' involvement in murder, torture, and abuse. That was replaced with a unspecific reference to "human rights" abuses; responsibility was to be assigned to nobody in particular. It seems a likely interpretation that a decision was made at a higher level in the Pentagon that it would not do to embarrass the Afghan military by accusing it explicitly in the US of human rights abuses.
Similarly, on page 72 a sentence is inserted late for the purpose of beefing up the claim, otherwise vague and weak, that Iran has been arming the Taliban. The insertion, a claim that the Taliban "has access to Iranian weaponry" produced as late as 2007, helps to obscure the admission in the previous sentence that "the lethal support that has been provided to the insurgency in Afghanistan has not proven militarily significant".
The other new Pentagon report, on the Afghan National Security Forces (the Army and police), doesn't make pleasant reading either. As of March (when it was completed), only one of the Army's 85 battalions was rated as capable of operating independently in the field (page 16). The Afghan Air Force consists of only 17 helicopters and 7 cargo planes.
That's as good a measure as any how little the Bush administration has achieved in Afghanistan during the last six and a half years. David Wood again:
Since 2001, the United States has spent about $23 billion in Afghanistan, most of it in training and equipping Afghan security forces. Total international assistance has reached $30 billion, but U.S. officials and non-governmental reports have said much of that aid has been wasted and poorly coordinated.
Update [2008-6-30 15:16:51 by smintheus]: Sometime in the afternoon or evening of Saturday, June 28, the DoD website switched the version of the Afghan security report described here (with last minutes edits showing up in purple font) to the version that was supposed to have been released (with those edits fully incorporated in the text). h/t Janus The web address remains unchanged.
The incorporation of those edits went precisely as predicted, e.g. on p. 40 the report's final version eliminated any explicit mention of the Afghan Security Force's involvement in murder, torture, and abuse. I saved a copy of the penultimate draft that was posted by mistake. Hence by comparing that with the final draft it's possible to observe how the Pentagon finishes putting its spin on such a sensitive report as this one.