[I was having Internet troubles yesterday, which is why the roundup is going up today. My apologies! -brownsox]
NC-Sen: Still more exciting polling news out of North Carolina's Senate race: Republican Elizabeth Dole leads Democrat Kay Hagan by just two points, 45% to 43%.
Meanwhile, the venerable Cook Political Report has moved their rating of North Carolina's Senate race to "Likely Republican". Current momentum is certainly with Hagan, and it's already a close race, so there's every reason to feel good about our chances. In fact, I think this ranking is slightly conservative: Swing State Project has moved their ranking of NC-Sen to "Leans Republican", and I'd have to go along with that.
MS-Sen: Meanwhile, in the wake of dueling polls showing a tight race in Mississippi (one of them showing Democrat Ronnie Musgrove leading by 8 points, the other showing Republican Roger Wicker up by four), Cook has moved their ranking of MS-Sen all the way from "Likely Republican" to "Toss Up".
Having a top-tier Senate race in Mississippi is remarkable, and having that race called as a tossup nearly six months before the election is even more so. I think Cook's ranking may be very slightly generous-I'd call the race "Lean Republican", but it makes a good bit of sense.
NH-Sen: Rasmussen has released their latest poll out of New Hampshire, and it shows Democrat Jeanne Shaheen leading Republican incumbent John Sununu by seven points, 50% to 43%. In April, the numbers looked almost the same, with Shaheen leading 51% to 43%.
The polling numbers, particularly from Rasmussen, have been exceptionally stable, and they've consistently shown Shaheen with a substantial lead. I don't think she has this race locked down, not by a long shot, but what's not to like about a consistent lead?
OR-Sen: Well, that didn't take long; the Dark Side is already astroturfing Oregon papers with ads attacking Democratic Senate candidate Jeff Merkley.
An anti-union group run out of a Washington, D.C., lobbyist’s office has taken out full-page ads in Oregon’s two biggest daily newspapers questioning Senate candidate Jeff Merkley’s support for a change in how unions are formed.
The ads in The Register-Guard and The Oregonian Thursday argue against the "card-check" method of winning employee approval for unionizing private workplaces. Merkley, a Democrat, supports federal legislation allowing the card-check approach, while the Republican senator he is challenging, Gordon Smith, has opposed it.
Meanwhile, Merkley and his primary opponent, Steve Novick, held a unity event yesterday morning, enabling Oregon Democrats to turn their attention to the common cause of taking out Gordon Smith.
House Races
UT-02: Jim Matheson drinks your milkshake. He drinks it up!
Dan Jones and Associates. 5/13-19.
Matheson (D) 67
Dew (R) 20
From the Deseret Morning News:
Matheson continues to drive Utah GOP leaders nuts with his 2nd District popularity.
Bless him.
NY-13: In the fight to save the seat of disgraced incumbent Vito Fossella, the GOP is now 0-for-2 in recruiting. The island's great Republican prize, Richmond County DA Daniel Donovan, opted out of the race first, only to be joined by county clerk Stephen Fiala:
Republican County Clerk Stephen Fiala has taken his name out of the running to replace Rep. Vito Fossella (R-Staten Island/Brooklyn) in the House of Representatives.
"My best judgment has led me to the decision not to run for Congress," Fiala told the Advance.
Fiala said he was concerned about his ability to raise money for the race and looking down the road, said he believed that the congressional district would be redrawn to favor a Democrat after the 2010 census.
This leaves State Senator Andrew Lanza as the leading GOP candidate should he decide to run. That's just fine by New York Democrats, who are fighting to gain control of the State Senate.
Meanwhile, Democratic Sen. Diane Savino also will not run, which should help us avoid a primary and a State Senate opening.
AL-02, AL-03, AL-05: The Democratic tide has spread well into "red Alabama", as the Press-Register Reports. We have two, perhaps three hot House races in the state, including two pickup opportunities. I'd consider both of those long shots, but viable nonetheless, AL-02 especially.
But the 2nd Congressional District in Alabama's Wiregrass region is emerging as a surprise battleground.
Republicans have held the seat since 1965. After his first election in 1992, Everett never faced a serious challenge. In 2004, Bush carried the district, which includes Dothan and part of Montgomery, with 67 percent of the vote.
Between the two major parties, a total of nine candidates are now jostling for a chance at the seat in the June 3 primaries. But Democrats claimed a coup earlier this year when Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright chose to run under their banner after being courted by both parties. Campaign disclosure reports show that Bright is already attracting contributions from national party power-brokers such as House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md.
After the Democratic pick- ups in Louisiana and Mississippi, a Bright victory would "absolutely represent the next step in this march," said John Anzalone, a Montgomery pollster who is working for Bright and was also involved in the other two campaigns.
Bright had initially lagged in the fundraising game, but he has picked it up of late, as Swing State Project reports. National Democrats are very excited about Bright's candidacy.
Meanwhile, in the 5th District, things are looking good in our attempt to hold the seat of retiring Democrat Bud Cramer, despite the district's R+6.5 PVI.
Democrats have also scored some breaks in the race for the conservative-leaning 5th Congressional District, which Cramer has represented since 1991. Republicans have long eyed the seat as a prime pick-up opportunity.
While both parties face contested primaries, the presumed Democratic front-runner is state Sen. Parker Griffith, a wealthy retired oncologist from Huntsville who has already secured Cramer's endorsement. The best-known candidate in the Republican field appears to be Wayne Parker, an insurance agency executive from Huntsville who twice lost to Cramer in the 1990s.
In the 3rd District, young Democrat Josh Segall is waging a surprisingly strong campaign against incumbent Republican Mike Rogers. Kossacks clammyc and thereisnospoon conducted a BlogTalkRadio interview with Segall today, as a matter of fact, so check that out to find more about one of the best dark-horse candidates this cycle.
OR-05: As Swing State Project and Daily Kos had done previously, the Cook Political Report has changed their rating of OR-05 to "Leans Democratic", a reflection that they have about as much faith in Mike "I Don't Know What Cocaine Looks Like" Erickson, as we do.
CA-11: Dean Andal, chief challenger to Democratic incumbent Rep. Jerry McNerney, has had an impressively bad time fundraising these last few months. In the month and a half since last filing, Andal has raised a grand total of $11,000.
That's eleven thousand whole dollars! This, despite having spent the vast majority of his time in the State Assembly hangin' with lobbyists, and having high-profile friends like John McCain to help him out.
Andal's sitting on over $500K on hand, so he isn't exactly broke. But the fact that he just raised $11K in six weeks, and just over $100K in 2008, has to be some comfort to Jerry McNerney.
